Gold rallied to a fresh all time high of over $1640 today following a rash of poor economic data from the US, Europe and China which suggests that the global economy growth is sliding.
Despite news that the US had tentatively reached an agreement to extend the debt ceiling, this important news seems to have now been eclipsed with the markets also very much concerned that the US may see a downgrading by credit agencies. In short, persistently weak economic data coupled with rising global risk sentiment is giving a lift to gold.
The markets focus has been very much on the US over the last fortnight but not exclusively so. Italian and Spanish 10 year bond yields are back above 6% (last was 6.14% and 6.31% respectively) with many market observers seeing 7% very much as a ceiling which would trigger margin calls and potentially a crisis in those important countries.
News that both the Korea and Greek Central Banks had both acquired gold has provided a powerful indicator that investor interest is not the only factor driving the market higher. The switch into gold by Central Banks is very much a reversal of the policy a decade ago and with concerns about the ratings attached to US debt that momentum can only intensify.
Looking ahead we see the momentum amongst gold buyers being maintained and fully expect gold to achieve $1850 this year. Gold is a barometer and it is giving a very clear signal - that signal is saying that there are some deep and fundamental economic issues that remain unresolved and it does not see the political will or courage to make the changes that are necessary.
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