Silver had a truly spectacular year, in 2010. The price increased from $15 an ounce to just over $31 an ounce, an increase of a whopping 106% in US dollars. And, no matter what currency you look at the price of silver increased anywhere from 60% to as much as 266% (Venezuela Bolivas). Since the bull market in silver began in 2003, the price has increased by as much as 775%. If we use the same example I used to illustrate the gains in gold, then an investment of $100,000 in silver would now be worth around $700,000! By comparison, over a ten year period, an investment of $100,000 in gold would now be worth $560,000 and an investment in bonds yielding say 8% per annum over a ten year period would be worth approximately $216,000. You don't have to be rocket scientist to see which investment has been the best performer.
Even though I have continually urged investors to allocate some of their funds to silver since the price was trading just above $6 an ounce in 2004, many of these individuals, have preferred to remain in equities, funds, money market and bonds. But, when the price of silver broke above $30 an ounce, many of these same individuals asked if it is now too late to enter the market. While I cannot explain the psychological imprint of these investors, I have seen this behavior many times over the last 30 years or so. These types of investors invariably seem to need the validation of their bankers, stock brokers, accountants etc., before making a decision. Yet, their advisers usually have no knowledge about these markets and are therefore not really qualified to render any advice on their potential or lack thereof. Then, by the time these investors realize that they have missed out on some major gains, and decide to enter the market, they deliberate waiting for a pull-back that never seems to come. And then, out of pure frustration, they finally enter the market, but only when it is close to peaking. My point is very simple. Don't make this mistake regarding silver. Despite the massive gains we have seen in the last ten years, this market is still far from peaking and still offers investors huge potential.
As I have already mentioned many investors, who have already missed out on some stellar returns, are now asking if they should enter the market at the current levels. And, as I have alluded to many times in the past, it depends on whether you are a trader who takes a short-term view or an investor who has a long-term time horizon. If you are a trader, I cannot predict the short-term moves, but if you are an investor I believe that the current pull-back in prices will not last very long and offers a wonderful opportunity to buy some silver. In the long run if you buy now and even if the market pulls back say another $3 an ounce, this is not going to have a major impact on your investment if the price goes to as high as $125 an ounce in a few years' time.
I believe that we will see the price of silver trade at $45 an ounce before the end of the year. On this basis, if you are able to buy at current levels of say around $29 an ounce and my analysis is correct, a return of 55% in 12 months' time is nothing to be laughed at. But, over the next coming years, I sincerely believe that we are going to see prices trade at several multiples of the current price.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
As the price of silver pulls back towards the medium-term 50 day MA, I believe that we will see prices supported at this level. That being the case, these dips offer more buying opportunities.
No comments:
Post a Comment